Politics of Decarbonization and Just Energy Transitions

Summary: Climate change policy and energy transition initiatives get started, make some progress, and get stuck in the “Improvement Trap.” Through the development of a dynamic model, this project examines why some initiatives are able to achieve modest greenhouse gas reductions or efficiency gains, but fail to produce enduring transformation of energy or social systems. Building on the finding that the politics of launching climate policies differ from those needed to sustain transformation, the project focuses on how capacity building, coalition formation, and normative change interact over time. Through theoretical innovation and comparative case studies of Canadian and international policies – including the Net Zero Accountability Act, industrial emissions pricing, the former consumer carbon tax, and EV and critical minerals strategies – U of T researchers from across all three campuses will explore how to align policy design with the political and social dynamics necessary to overcome the Improvement Trap and achieve enduring decarbonization.